15. Earth Inc.
As factory automation, robotics, nanotechnology, tissue-culture farming, artificial intelligence, Internet, and other technologies are introduced and become widely implemented, the need for labor will diminish, perhaps towards zero for many categories of worker. What will those who are displaced do? What if the majority of the population is displaced?
Jeremy Rifkin sounds the following warning regarding the disruptions in the economy, and in the social order, that technology may bring in the near future:
In the future, a growing number of people around the world will be spending less time on the job and have more time on their hands. Whether their “free” time will be coerced, involuntary, and the result of forced part-time work, layoffs, unemployment, or leisure made possible by productivity gains, shorter workweeks, and better income remains to be worked out in the political arena. If massive unemployment of a kind unknown in history were to occur as a result of the sweeping replacement of machines for human labor, then the chances of developing a compassionate and caring society and world view based on the transformation of human spirit are unlikely. The more likely course would be widespread social upheaval, violence on an unprecedented scale, and open warfare, with the poor lashing out at each other as well as at the rich elites who control the global economy. If, instead, an enlightened course is pursued, allowing workers to benefit from increases in productivity with shorter workweeks and adequate income, more leisure time will exist than in any other period of modern history. That free time could be used to renew the bonds of community and rejuvenate the democratic legacy. A new generation might transcend the narrow limits of nationalism and begin to think and act as common members of the human race, with shared commitments to each other, the community, and the larger biosphere.[1]
The average hours worked over the last few hundred years has varied widely.[2] However a definite trend to fewer hours is evident. A projection can be made that hours worked will decrease dramatically as a singularity of automation, robotics, artificial intelligence and other technologies is reached perhaps within 20 years. Millions of workers will be displaced. Younger generations will welcome this shift as they are increasingly jaded at their future prospects. They are burdened by excessive student loan and other debts as they fight to break even in a low wage high inflation environment. Rents are high which push them into desperation. Home prices and interest rates are skyrocketing killing any hopes for a middle class life regardless of how much they try.
They compare their life to previous generations and are dismayed and angry. They feel unheard and ignored by elders that should assist their transition to adulthood. Especially as compared to baby boomers who went to college without incurring large debt, benefitted by two income households and bought homes before the population double at low prices and interest rates. This left an immense amount of discretional funds to support lavish middle class lifestyles.
R. Buckminster Fuller had this to say about the future of work:
You will not equate work with earning a living. This is very important. Every human being has a deep drive within them to demonstrate competence to themselves and to others. It’s going to be the greatest privilege of all in a new kind of world like that, to be allowed to be on the production team. It will have nothing to do with earning a living, nothing to do with upset.[3]
How do we, as a society, prevent a future with 1% trillionaires and 99% unemployed? One solution is that every citizen of the United States should be issued shares in the United States of America, Inc. and receive dividend checks, not welfare or other support checks. Why? Because no one individual built the amazing economic engine that is cranking out such prodigious and increasing amounts of wealth each year. Our collective forebears built it. We should all share in the inheritance.
Fuller examined the then new, and unheard of before in all of history, idea that people should be paid to learn. This was the post-World War II GI Bill:
One of the myths of the moment suggest that wealth comes from individual bankers and capitalists. This concept is manifest in the myriad of charities that have to beg for alms for the poor, disabled, and helpless young and old in general. These charities are a hold-over from the old pirate days, when it was thought that there would never be enough to go around. They also are necessitated by our working assumption that we cannot afford to take care of all the helpless ones. Counseled by our bankers, our politicians say we can’t afford the warring and the great society, too. And because of the mythical concept that the wealth which is disbursed is coming from some magically secret private source, no free and healthy individual wants that “hand out” from the other man, whoever he may be. Nor does the individual wish to be on the publicly degrading “dole” line.
After World War II several million of our well-trained, healthiest young people came suddenly out of the military service. Because we had automated during the war to a very considerable degree to meet the “war challenges” there were but few jobs to offer them. Our society could not say realistically that the millions of their healthiest, best informed young were unfit because they couldn’t get a job, which had until that historical moment been the criteria of demonstrated fitness in Darwin’s “survival only of the fittest” struggle. In that emergency we legislated the GI Bill and sent them all to schools, colleges, and universities. This act was politically rationalized as a humanly dignified fellowship reward of their war service and not as a “hand out.” It produced billions of dollars of new wealth through the increased know-how and intelligence thus released, which synergetically augmented the spontaneous initiative of that younger generation. In legislating this “reckless spending” of wealth we didn’t know that we had produced a synergetic condition that would and did open the greatest prosperity humanity has ever known.[4]
Fuller proposed the basis for this program, his “mind fellowships” in response to fears that automation would make workers redundant:
As we study industrialization, we see that we cannot have mass production unless we have mass consumption. This was effected evolutionarily by the great social struggles of labor to increase wages and spread the benefits and prevent the reduction of the numbers of workers employed. The labor movement made possible mass purchasing; ergo, mass production; ergo, low prices on vastly improved products and services, which have altogether established entirely new and higher standards of humanity’s living.
Our labor world, and all salaried workers, including school teachers and college professors, are now at least subconsciously, if not consciously, afraid that automation will take away their jobs. They are afraid they won’t be able to do what is called “earning a living,” which is short for earning the right to live. This term implies that normally we are supposed to die prematurely and that it is abnormal to earn a living. It is paradoxical that only the abnormal and exceptional are entitled to prosper. Yesterday the term even inferred that success was so very abnormal that only divinely ordained kings and nobles were entitled to eat fairly regularly.
It is easy to demonstrate to those that will take the time and the trouble to unbias their thoughts that automation swiftly can multiply the physical energy part of wealth much more rapidly and profusely than can man’s muscle and brain-reflexed manually-controlled production. On the other hand humans alone can foresee, integrate, and anticipate the new tasks to be done by progressively automated wealth-producing machinery. To take advantage of the fabulous magnitudes of real wealth waiting to be employed intelligently by humans and unblock automation’s postponement by organized labor we must give each human who is or becomes unemployed a life fellowship in research and development or in just simple thinking. Man must be able to dare to think truthfully and to act accordingly without fear of losing his franchise to live. The use of mind fellowships will permit humans comprehensively to expand and accelerate scientific exploration and experimental prototype development. For every 100,000 employed in research and development, or just plain thinking, one probably will make a breakthrough that will more than pay for the other 99,999 fellowships. Thus, production will no longer be impeded by humans trying to do what machines can do better. Contrariwise, omni-automated and inanimately powered production will unleash humanity’s unique capability – its metaphysical capability.[5]
And what does Bucky dearest think people will do if they don’t have to work anymore? Go fishing? Exactly!
Given their research and development fellowship, many who have been frustrated during their younger years may feel like going fishing. Fishing provides an excellent opportunity to think clearly; to review one’s life; to recall one’s earlier frustrated and abandoned longings and curiosities. What we want everybody to do is to think clearly.
We soon will begin to generate wealth so rapidly that we can do very great things. I would like to think what this may do realistically for living without spoiling the landscape, or the antiquities or the trails of humanity throughout the ages, or despoiling the integrity of romance, vision, and harmonic creativity.[6]
Lest the reader think this scheme entirely unlikely, please first consider that for many years now, each citizen of Alaska has received a dividend check – a fallout from the immense oil wealth delivered via the pipeline. The following article describes how it works:
Sam McConkey – Your About.com Guide to: Alaska for Visitors, Tue, Nov 16, 1999
It’s true…Alaskan residents receive money every year just for living in this great state. Sounds like a pretty good gig, eh? Before you pack your bags, however, below is a little more information about the Alaska Permanent Fund, and the annual dividend.
In the mid-1970s, the trans-Alaska oil pipeline was under construction and Alaska was about to become rich, rich, rich from the oil revenues generated from the state’s most abundant natural resource. In 1976, then governor Jay Hammond introduced a constitutional amendment to create the Permanent Fund, and the people of Alaska voted to create a public savings account to ensure permanent benefits from Alaska’s new-found wealth.
The fund was created to ensure that diminishing oil revenues over time would not result in diminished income to the state and to subsidize many government services without implementing a tax on the citizens. Of course, the fund also provides an additional source of income for all Alaskans. How much? Well, the amount varies every year, but this year’s dividend will exceed $1,700. Who is entitled to the dividend? Any person who has lived in Alaska for at least one year. This includes one-year old children, as well, which is not a bad way to save for college!
Currently, there is not a state income tax in Alaska, as the income from the Permanent Fund is sufficient to pay for the government services typically funded by tax dollars. In an effort to ensure that this remains the case, the managers of the Permanent Fund only distribute 50% of the income from the fund each year. The other half is reinvested to ensure the growth of the fund and to “inflation proof” the account.
To date, the fund has performed exceptionally well. While the stated goal of the fund managers is to achieve a 4% rate of return without exposing the fund to any real risk, the fund has actually achieved an annual rate of return of 12%. The fund (which began with a zero balance in 1976), now has a balance of over $25 billion. This makes the Permanent Fund among the top 100 largest investment funds in the world.
In sum, the Alaska Permanent Fund has historically met and exceeded its stated goals, and it doesn’t appear to be going anywhere soon. The Permanent Fund Corporation has a very informative web site with the above information and much, much more (http://www.apfc.org).[7]
A Technological Displacement Fund, similar to the Alaska Permanent Fund described above can be established to fund a dividend payment to every citizen.
Three schemes to fund dividends are possible. First is a Displacement Tax on all financial transactions that make up Gross Domestic Purchases (GDP) which are projected to reach almost $20 Trillion in 2024. [8]
The population of the U.S. is 335 Million.[9] A 10% tax rate would raise $2 Trillion which is $5,970 per year or $23,880 for a family of four.
This income should be enough to meet the basic living expenses for a family residing in a low cost-of-living area, especially considering that a high percentage of wages, at this pay level, go towards job-related expenses such as transportation, clothing, day care, meals away from home, tools, and so on. Many of these expenses would be eliminated if the family stopped working traditional jobs, but instead pursued other tasks like education, research, writing, volunteer work, artistic expression, spiritual growth, or simply leisure and a peaceful existence.
As the technology discussed earlier becomes widely implemented, productivity will increase drastically, and so should the amount of dividends per family. A beneficial side effect would be to encourage families to have children.
The primary objection is that it would be a drag on the economy since it is basically the same as a national sales tax.
The second scheme would be to institute a Displacement Wealth Tax. After all, the standing on the shoulders of giants quote could be said to apply to wealth too. Without the huge accumulated investment in the infrastructure of the country (roads, airports, schools & colleges, libraries, utilities, legal system, national defense, and so on), that our collective ancestors built and paid for, today’s citizens would not be able to earn more than a bare subsistence, let alone amass personal fortunes. Thus it is only fitting that they pay back a portion.
There are about 22.7 million households with a worth of $1 Million of more. The top 1% own 53.5% of all stocks and mutual funds. The bottom 90% own just 11.4%. There were 128,000 individuals with net assets of at least $50 Million in 2022. High net-worth individuals owned $24.32 Trillion dollars in 2020.[10]
A Displacement Wealth Tax of just 1% would raise $240 Billion growing each year. The dividend paid would be $716 per year or $2,865 for a family of 4.
This plan could be considered an enhancement to the economy – instead of the wealth sitting in the bank accounts of a handful of heirs (genetic lottery winners), it would be distributed to, and most likely spent by, all citizens. The plan could also replace the Social Security program, which may be bankrupt long before then in any case. They would be forced to sell investments to pay any additional taxes.
The primary objection is that it punishes the wealthy who are likely to have almost all their funds invested in businesses that benefit the overall population. An unintended result is to displace even more workers.
A third plan is favored. A Displacement Tax on the companies that benefit the most from disruptive technologies. These include artificial intelligence, factory automation, robotics, genetic engineering, driverless cars and trucks, retail self-checkouts and so on. Online ecommerce, travel, banking and similar services have also replaced local workers and should be included. These companies have huge profit potentials and should see phenomenal growth.
AI revenues are forecast to exceed $1.3 Trillion by 2030.[11] Industrial automation should reach $277 Billion.[12] A reasonable guess for the total is $5 Trillion per year. A Displacement Tax of 20% would raise $1 Trillion per year which equates to $2,985 for each U.S. citizen or $11,940 for a family of 4. This $1,000 per month would make a significant quality of life difference for most families struggling now to get by. Companies paying in are of course free to raise their prices but the tradeoff for average families is quite favorable.
The primary objection is that future growth companies are unfairly targeted and penalized for their success. On the other hand millions of displaced workers hungry, demoralized and angry is a real threat. Better a tax that will apply to all participants equally and can be passed along than living in an underground bunker.
Welfare has a stigma for Americans. Dividends from wealth producing investments do not. This may well be the best solution to technological displacement for a proud people, who have embraced individualism and the free-market ethos, and who gain their very identity, in large measure, from their jobs. Perhaps eventually, the people of the world will claim as their birthright, shares, and the dividends that come with those shares, in the collective global enterprise to be known as Earth, Inc.[13]
[1] Rifkin, The End of Work , p. 247-8.
[2] R. Buckminster Fuller, Earthian’s Critical Moment , Transcript taken from a dialogue while playing World Game. From Buckminster Fuller Institute website (http://www.bfi.org/earthian.htm).
[3] Economic History Association
[4] Fuller, Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth, p. 98-99.
[5] Ibid. p.106-108.
[6] Ibid. p.108-109.
[7] Sam McConkey, Your About.com Guide to: Alaska for Visitors , Tuesday, November 16, 1999. (http://goalaska.about.com/travel/goalaska/library/weekly/aa100599. htm?iam=ask&terms=Alaska).
[8] Statista Consumption Indicators – United States 2024
[9] U.S. Census Bureau
[10] Statista Estate and Gift Tax Revenue and Forcast U.S. 2023
[11] Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market worth $1,339.1 billion by 2030- Exclusive Report by MarketsandMarkets™, PR Newswire,
[12] Industrial Automation Market to Reach USD 277.35 Billion Globally by 2030, at a growth rate of 8.5 percent, PR Newswire
[13] From the title of the book Earth Inc., R. Buckminster Fuller, Fuller Research Foundation, 1947.